The College Sports Geek

O.k., so after an amazingly busy March I took all week last week off to recharge the batteries and I'm ready to take a look back at what was the 2010-11 College Basketball Season.  In the following weeks you'll see myself and some guests break down the season conference by conference, so if you want to know when you're favorite league will be featured I'm announcing the order for this season tonight!!

1. ACC                                        11. Northeast                         21. Ivy League
2. MAC                                       12. Sun Belt                           22. Big East
3. Southland                                 13. OVC                               23. West Coast Conference 
4. Patriot Leage                            14. Great West                      24. Big Ten
5. Big West                                  15. Missouri Valley                25. Southern Conference
6. MEAC                                     16. Mountain West                26. MAAC
7. Independents                            17. Big Sky                           27. CAA
8. SEC                                         18. SWAC                            28. Pac - 10 
9. Atlantic 10                                19. America East                   29. Conference USA
10. WAC                                     20. Horizon League               30. Big South
                                                                                                  31. Summit League
                                                                                                  32. Atlantic Sun
                                                                                                  33. Big 12

I look forward to breaking down what happened in conference and for each team in that league.  It was an interesting season for sure and there were a lot of surprise teams all over the place.  Additionally starting tomorrow I'm hoping to get each conference done once a day from Monday - Friday and see this breakdown done in a few weeks time.

Hey there, so it's been a week since I last spoke to all of my fellow College Sports Geeks and I apologize for not writing more, however I have been involved with a new opportunity and that's why I'm here today.  I'm hear to announce that I have taken a position as Editor and Featured Columnist for http://www.wiscobadgers.com/. This is a great opportunity for me to focus on the home state Badgers, but don't fret my fellow Geeks, I'm not leaving this site behind by any means!!  You'll just have to go over to the site to find all my musings on the Badgers from now on.  To that end there was some major news on a new Women's Basketball coach and you'll find some initial thoughts there and posts later tonight in that regards.  It's been fun posting my thoughts about my beloved Badgers here, but I hope you join me at the NEW home for your #1 Badgers news and thoughts and as always.... ON WISCONSIN!!

I dare say that I was bested by nearly all of my wonderful readers in this years NCAA Tournament Pool.  Thanks to my buddy Rich for holding up the bottom spot so I can at least say I wasn't the WORST!!  Congrats goes out to Adam Krueger who took the overall pool with a point total of 205 and 36 overall correct picks.  Adam started out amazing, have 23 teams left after the 2nd round and 9 of the Sweet 16.  In the end he even had one of the Final Four teams correct, of course it was UConn but still an amazing feat in this crazy NCAA Tournament year.  In fact he was the only one in the whole field to have any of the Final Four participants correct.  I hate to say I was bested, but alas this was probably the worst bracket I have had in about 15 years of filling out brackets with any sort of "knowledge" behind all the teams in the field.  Additionally a special shout out has to go to Noah Jones who ended up with the most correct picks at 37 and placed 2nd overall with a point total of 198! I hope you all enjoyed kicking my butt, 'cause I know it won't happen again!! :)

Look for the Tournament Challenge to be much improved next season and there may even be actually prizes for the winners, other than their own personal glory and a guest spot as a writer here!  I hope it's been a fun tournament watching season for all of you and I can't wait to see what next year has in store for us!!

Saturday proved to be a good night in Houston for Butler and UConn as they advanced to the National Championship game tonight.  Who would've thought that the game featuring two college coaching legends in John Calipari and Jim Calhoun would end up being the uninteresting and horribly played game of the night, huh?  Both Butler and UConn are riding hot streaks to get to the most unexpected National Championship game I have ever experienced in my 29 years on this earth.  For a small sample of what I think might happen you can check out my previous thoughts on the Final Four here: Final Four Preview, where you will see that I was correct in my predictions for the National Championship game participants tonight.  Do I see my original prediction for tonight holding true and will One Shining Moment be as awesome as it usual is? Find out here!!

#8 Butler vs. #3 UConn(9:23pmET on CBS)
- Talk about a role reversal huh?  Saturday night's games were supposed to feature the drab and boring style of play from Butler making for a low scoring and horrible on the eyes type game, excpet no one told the two teams playing that night.  VCU and Bulter played a back and forth well paced game that produced drama right down to the final moments as Butler hit their FT's to ice the 70-62 win, getting them to a 2nd straight title game.  The much hyped UConn vs. Kentucky matchup turned out to be one of the single worst played Final Four games in my lifetime, despite a close 56-55 UConn victory.  A game that featured a Kentucky team that was held to only 33.9% shooting despite Knight going off for 17 points, only topped by Kemba Walker and his game high 18 and was notable for poor shots and bad turnovers on both ends ended mercifully around 10:30 central. 

Everyone wants to talk about the run that UConn is on, having won 10 straight to get from the Big East 1st round to the National Championship game, but no one mentions the fact that Butler is an owner of a longer streak, 14, which includes a Horizon League Championship and dates back to Feb. 5th.  On the court I see the key match up being between Matt Howard and Alex Oriakhi.  These two can really bang inside with Howard going for 16.4ppg and 7.2 rpg in the tourney and Oriakhi going for only 6.6ppg but 9.6rpg.  For some reason guys like Dick Vitale and Jay Bilas seem to think the advantage inside goes to UConn, but numbers don't lie in this case and outside of Oriakhi the Huskies don't have anyone that scores or rebounds all that well.  Butler's co-X-factor's for me are the inside precense of center Andrew Smith(6.6ppg, 5.8rpg in tourney) and the defense of guard Shawn Vanzant(8.6ppg in tourney).  Vanzant is more because he will be tasked with staying with UConn freshman guard and my X-Factor Jeremy Lamb(17ppg in tourney).  The combination of Lamb and Walker has served the Huskies well in this tournament and all season.  Oriakhi has been a revelation more in the NCAA tournament for his amazing rebounding numbers.

 In the end I see Butler being more than capable of staying with the Huskies from the perimeter and having a very big advantage on the inside as long as Howard stays away from foul trouble.  Not only that, but who would've thought they would have more experience than a UConn team in National Championship games?  UConn hasn't been to the title game since they won it in 2004, before most of the current roster was even in high school.  That has to count for something in my opinion, even if it's just handeling the early jitters a bit better the 2nd time around for Butler.  In the end I just dont' see any reason as to why I should change my pick from Saturday night.

National Champion: Butler Bulldogs 

Tonight the culmination of one of the most interesting and upside down seasons in NCAA basketball history gets underway from Reliant Stadium in Houston, TX.  We will begin the night off with the most unexpected match up in Final Four history as VCU takes on Butler and then end the night with two programs that aren't strangers to this spotlight as Kentucky does battle with UConn.  Unfortunately I didn't see any of these teams coming close to the Final Four, but as a result I can sit back and enjoy these two games tonight and the National Championship game on Monday with no vested interest at all.  These games provide some great style match up's and personality match up's and I can't wait to watch it all unfold in just under two hours.  How do I see this one shaking out and who will win it all?

#11 VCU vs. #8 Bulter(6pmET on CBS)
- The opening game in the 2011 Final Four serves a testament as to why the NCAA Tournament is the single greatest event in all of American sports.  Hardly anyone had Butler(the defending national runner-up) moving out of their 1st round match up with Old Dominion and here they are in Houston facing fellow CAA conference member VCU.  Meanwhile nearly every single on air "pundit" had a major issue with VCU making it to the field of 68 and yet here they are in Houston as well.  Totally opposite but equally amazing runs got these two teams here.  VCU has pulled off something no other school has ever done in the history of the NCAA tournament, win games against 5 of the top 6 conferences in the country en route to their trip to the Final Four.  They beat USC(Pac-10), Georgetown(Big East), Purdue(Big Ten), Florida State(ACC), and Kansas(Big 12) to get to Houston.  They arrive here having beat everyone but FSU by double digits.  They've done it with a combination of great pressure defense and unreal shooting.  For the tournament the Rams have only given up 61.6ppg while scoring at a 74ppg clip, giving them a +12.9ppg scoring margin.  Any questions now as to how they were able to get to the Final Four?  If so, how about shooting an amazing 43.1% from behind the arc and 43.5% overall for the tournament?  Still not convinced, well there is the defensive effort that also held their opponents to 38.9% shooting overall.  Butler got here in completely different way having won their games by a whole 2.3ppg and having a 7 point difference as their high.  The Bulldogs have gotten to their 2nd straight Final Four, something no other school in their category can say, in just about every fashion possible.  They started off with a tip in at the buzzer for a 2pt victory of ODU, then they got help from Pitt missing FT's and fouling to ice a tie game with 0.8 seconds left.  Their Sweet 16 win over Wisconsin took a great defensive effort to hold off a furious 2nd half comeback by the Badgers who were down by over 20 at one point in the 2nd half.  In the win over Florida to get to the Final Four it took OT and another great defensive effort to hold off the Gators.  It's no doubt these teams belong and it's the highlight of the weekend for me.  I think the experience edge is huge for Butler in this one as just about every player on this team was a member of last years National Runner-Up.  Look for Butler to find another interesting way to win as they could hit a buzzer beater to win this one 74-71.

#4 Kentucky vs. #3UConn(8:30pmET)
- This game should be the talk of the tournament, but instead the head coaches find themselves awash in controversy for paying players(Kentucky) and manipulating test scores(UConn)... allegedly of course (wink, wink).  Calipari is making his 1st trip to the Final Four, well at least if you ask the NCAA that is.  He was here in 1996 with UMass and again in 2008 with Memphis before taking the Kentucky job that spring.  UConn has rode the Walker train all the way from the Big East 1st round to the Final Four, a run of 9 straight games.  Walker is averaging 26.7ppg in the tourney and has gotten help inside from Alex Oriakhi(8.6prg on the year).  They are looking at making history as the only team to ever win the Big East title and the National Champions having to play in every game in the Big East tournament and the NCAA tournament.  Kentucky has been led by star freshman Brandon Knight(15.9ppg) and senior forward John Harrellson(9rpg).  Harrellson has also been a scoring force in the tournament and is the X-Factor in this game.  I think UConn isn't quite as talented, but has seen just about everything thrown at it this year and is on a mission.  Look for a UConn win by double digits in the night cap, 78-64.

National Title Game: #8 Butler vs. #3UConn(Monday night)
- Butler continues to make history with a 2nd straight national title game appearance and will take on UConn who haven't been to the title game in quite some time.  Of course the national pundits will say UConn is a big favorite, but if you have been paying attention you will see that Butler can match up with anyone on the UConn team including Walker.  Look out for the Bulldogs and I'm calling it, Butler will win it all this time!!

National Champion:  Butler Bulldogs!!!!!!

The 2011 NCAA tournament has provided some of the best action in postseason play in my 29 years on earth.  Somehow there is a bracket out there on ESPN that features all of the Final Four participants and that's just crazy. We got the #4 seed from the East in Kentucky, the #11 seed from the Southwest in VCU, the #8 seed from the Southeast in Butler, and finally the #3 seed from the West in UConn for this amazing Final Four weekend.  Interestingly this is an even split amongst the so called "Power" conference schools(Kentucky and UConn) and the "mid-major" schools(Butler and VCU) that guarantees us a "mid-major" vs. "Power" match up on Monday night. 

While the story of how VCU and Butler got to the Final Four is a great one, that's not what I'm here to discuss with you today.  The question that has been floating around in my head since Butler's overtime win on Saturday has been, is the era of the "mid-major" over?

I know most of you are sitting there with a rather puzzled look on your face and are probably asking "is this man off his rocker?"  No, I do question if the label of mid-major really even fits at this point in college basketball.  Take a look at what the NCAA tournament has produced over the past ten years and you will see a growing trend of games being won by "mid-major" schools, with George Mason making the 2006 Final Four and ending this year with both VCU and Butler in the Final Four.  After doing some research I have found some very interesting things that show that so called "mid-majors" are winning more and more seemingly each year and it make me really question if it's a matter of playing well when it counts or an indication of something more?

I went back to the start of the field of 64 in the 1985 NCAA tournament and have broken down the tournament in different sections since then.  It is really hard to label anyone as a true "mid-major" program before the 1997 tournament because of the flux of conferences that finally led to the break up of the Southwestern Conference and formed Conference USA and the Big 12.  After that the flux of conferences was much more fluid and didn't dramatically change the college basketball landscape.  People may also question the use of Memphis in the "mid-major" category but for me I only used the Tigers after the split of the original Conference USA when Marquette, Cincy, DePaul, South Florida, and Louisville left for the Big East. Breaking down the tournaments by number of games won my "mid-majors" has really shown that my original thoughts may just be right on, the term "mid-major" should be put to bed.  It's more about the teams than the conference in 2011.

Looking at the tournament as a whole we see that from 1985 to 97 that on average "mid-majors" won 8.9 games a tournament and increased to 11.1 from 1998-2010.  Those 13 year break downs show a nearly 3 game a year increase in "mid-major" winning.  If you break it down even more during the 1997-2003 era they averaged 9.5 wins a tournament and in the 2004-2010 era it increases to 12.1 games a tournament.  O.k., so great we see an increase in winning, but what does it mean and why?

For me there are two big reasons we are seeing an increase in winning for the non-power conference schools.  1st off is the level of coaching in the "mid-major" world.  Mark Few, Brad Stevens, Shaka Smart, and many others have gotten a young start on their careers at smaller but hungry schools, something that the power conferences are unlikely to do, waiting for "established" coaches to come along.  This has allowed many small school programs to recruit better and with more intensity because these coaches are hungry to prove themselves and have a great spirit to them.  The 2nd and perhaps most important reason is the change in the NBA entry rule, having to be one year removed from high school, over the past 5 years has changed how the college game is recruited and played.  Some of the biggest programs in the country like Kentucky, North Carolina, Florida, and Kansas have basically becoming a collection of talented NBA players in waiting.  That's all fine and dandy for one season, but it doesn't build a program.  In the past few years you have really seen this born out as some of these "power" schools have struggled with chemistry and when they run into teams from "mid-major" land they are running into teams that have been together for a few seasons and are used to playing all types of situations together and it's shown in the runs that Butler, VCU, George Mason, Gonzaga, etc. have made, hanging on in close games when in years past the "power" conference team would've pulled it out with the collection of talent and experience together, but that has been flipped on it's head over and over again in the past decade.

In the end I think the increase in winning comes down to the fact that so many players that would be recruited to those power schools are being bypassed for the one-and-done talent and the scholarship that free's up every year and that has allowed the college basketball world to prosper as a whole, spreading out the talent and that talent getting great coaching.  For me the term "mid-major" should be a dead one as the only thing that makes some of these schools and conferences different is the amount of money available to the programs.  Put any program from the likes of the Missouri Valley, Horizon League, CAA, Sun Belt, etc. on the budget that the power schools have and you would see every one of them become instantly successful in my book.  I've made my case, what say you?

04.05.11 - UPDATE:  Here is a great article from the Green Bay Press-Gazette in regards to the vacant Wisconsin Womens job, of which only one of the below named candidates is even still in the hunt: Matt Bollant.  Take a read and see what you think: Press-Gazette Wisconsin Coaching Search Update.

Over the past week there has been a steady stream of rumors, stories, confirmed interviews and denials surrounding the coaching vacancy in the Women's basketball program at the University of Wisconsin.  The names that have surfaced are a very interesting bunch and a few outside factors could make this search a hard one for the Badgers.

First off the names that have been brought to the forefront are Bill Fennelly of Iowa State, Matt Bollant of Green Bay, and Kevin McGuff from Xavier.  According to multiple Twitter reports McGuff has interviewed and removed his name from consideration.  I firmly believe that he would've been the best choice for the job on a pure X's and O's level, but as I'll explain later I think Barry Alvarez(UW's Athletic Director) may have issues with all three candidates that are being mentioned.  Matt Bollant has also confirmed an interview for the job, but nothing has come out in regards to the seriousness of that interview since it happened yesterday.  Fennelly's name is very interesting, but also probably the least likely of any name out there to take the position.  Eventually I see this coming down to Bollant and maybe another candidate that hasnt' been named as of this writing.  Why?

Bill Fennelly would be a huge coup for the Badgers program.  He's taken my beloved Iowa State Cyclones and made them a powerhouse in his 16 years in Ames.  Doing so in the biggest, baddest conference in the Women's basketball world, the Big 12, is no small feat.  However, the man currently sits on a 12 year "lifetime" contract that guarantees him 7 million and could be worth up to 10 million over that span.  All reports indicate that the Badgers aren't anywhere near that money level.  The only way I see him taking this job over staying at Iowa State is two fold, the recruiting base for the Badgers is much wider than Iowa State, especially considering the talent level in Wisconsin and he may be able to set this up where his son can take over the program at ISU and both be coaching at the same time and not have to deal as much with the "following a legend" if he is still coaching somewhere else.  Eventually I don't see this happening at all, it just doesn't make that much sense for a man that is beloved by the Cyclone fan base and may be the 2nd most popular coach outside of Paul Rhoads to leave for a program in need of some serious rehab.

I would have more of an opinion on McGuff but he has taken his name out of consideration and I believe it's because it's not a step up from the Xavier job he currently holds.  They weren't going to be able to offer him much more in terms of money and the facilities that the Muskateers have are top notch.

This leaves us with Matt Bollant.  He's been fantastic as the coach at Green Bay, leading the Phoenix to the 2011 Sweet 16(the programs 1st) and a 34-2 overall record.  I think he may be tempted to leave the program for a "power conference" school and this could be that job.  However, as I've stated before Alvarez has some major issues to contend with.  The 1st issue at hand is the amount of money being offered.  Rumor has it they are looking to hire at the 300k-350k level and that is pretty cheap for this type of job and a bad indication of the support the overall athletic department has for the women's game at the moment.  Additionally he would be leaving a program that has shown great support financially, building the 4,500 seat Kress Events Center and giving Bollant a substantial pay raise for a "mid-major" program and has the backing of the campus and overall community in Green Bay for one that shows less support on a bigger scale.  Finally Alvarez must try and sell to Bollant that he can win at Wisconsin.  The Badgers haven't been a good program in awhile despite throwing money at the program to hire top coaches from the mid-major ranks(Lisa Stone) and consistently have been beat by his current team in Green Bay. Combine that with a lack of support and lack of a winning tradition and I tend to believe that Bollant may end up turning down this job.  He has stated in the past that he wouldn't take a "Power" conference job just to take one, it would be the perfect job.  I tend to believe him and the Badgers may have to pull candidates this weekend at the Women's Final Four in Indy to get their coach.  It wouldn't be a total shock to see Bollant leave, as the last two coaches have left for "major" jobs in Carol Hamerle(NIU when they were a power) and Kevin Borseth(Michigan - an NCAA tournament team this year).  But in my honest opinion this isn't that perfect job he has talked about and walking away from a sure thing to a job that hasn't been successful for other "mid-major" coaches may be very hard to do.  The Green Bay program is a tight knit family and that aspect has to weight heavily on him as well and may push him to return even more.

This may be the most important hire for the Badgers in quite some time and if they don't get it right this team runs the risk of playing 3rd fiddle in the state behind Marquette and Green Bay.  Green Bay would be fine should he leave as they have shown a great knack at finding the right coaches, but nothing would be better than seeing Bollant stay.  Good luck to all involved and I hope things clear up fast for all involved.